What Are Fuel Demand Controls and Why Are They Being Imposed?
Governments around the world are rationing fuel. These measures, known as demand controls, are policies designed to deliberately reduce how much oil and fuel a country consumes when supply can’t keep up with need. They range from speed limit reductions and remote work mandates to restrictions on business air travel.
The trigger behind today’s crisis is the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows daily. After the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on 28 February 2026, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait closed to most shipping traffic on 4 March.
The result: approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5.5 million barrels of refined oil products that moved through the Strait each day were suddenly cut off from global markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has called this “the greatest global energy security challenge in history.”
How is This Different from Past Oil Crises?
Unlike the 2022 energy disruption following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this crisis hit both crude oil supply and refining capacity at the same time. Brent crude crossed US$100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 and peaked at roughly US$120 per barrel. Jet fuel prices, which sat at around US$83-89 per barrel in January, surged past US$230 per barrel by early March.
The speed of the price spike caught most industries off guard. The IATA has noted that the rapid pace of change, rather than just the high price itself, is what makes this crisis particularly damaging for airlines.
How Is the Fuel Shortage Affecting Flights and Airfares?
If you’ve noticed flight prices climbing sharply or seen cancellations on routes you regularly fly, the global fuel shortage is likely the reason. The aviation industry is being hit on multiple fronts: higher fuel costs, airspace closures across the Middle East, and longer rerouted flight paths that burn even more fuel.
Flight Cancellations at Scale
Between 28 February and early April 2026, over 52,000 flights have been cancelled across the Middle East alone. On the worst single day, nearly 7% of all global flights were scrapped, with 7,049 of 104,618 scheduled routes cancelled worldwide.
Major Gulf carriers have borne the heaviest losses. Qatar Airways has cancelled over 12,000 flights and suspended service to 64 destinations, currently operating a limited schedule as it works to restore service to over 120 destinations by mid-May. Saudia has recorded thousands of cancellations, with hundreds of flights disrupted on peak days across Saudi airports.
Emirates and Etihad have restored a larger share of their schedules but remain below full capacity. Outside the region, United Airlines has cut 5% of its planned flights, while Scandinavian Airlines cancelled around 1,000 flights in April.
Ticket Prices Are Climbing Fast
Airfares for the week beginning 9 March were up 24% compared to the same week in 2025. Fuel surcharges, which airlines add on top of base fares to offset volatile fuel costs, have spiked across every major carrier.
Here’s how fares and surcharges have changed at some of the major airlines:
- Emirates: Emirates has not introduced new standalone surcharges and is absorbing much of the fuel cost increase for now. However, carrier-imposed fees on long-haul routes have risen significantly, with economy tickets to the Americas now carrying around US$322 per leg in fuel-related charges.
- Qatar Airways: Qatar Airways is operating a reduced schedule and absorbing higher fuel costs to fill seats. Fares on remaining routes have risen 18–22% year-over-year, and reward booking fees have increased by over 125% on some long-haul routes.
- Etihad Airways: Etihad has kept fares relatively low and is even offering discounts of up to 50% on some long-haul routes to boost demand during the crisis. The airline is absorbing the fuel cost increase rather than passing it on through surcharges.
- Cathay Pacific: Cathay Pacific raised fuel surcharges by 34% on top of an earlier 105% hike. A long-haul round trip now carries roughly US$400 in fuel surcharges alone.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has warned that if the war in Iran does not end by the end of April, airlines could cut 5-10% of flights through May, June, and July.
Which Regions and Routes Are Most Affected?
The fuel crisis isn’t hitting everywhere equally. Your exposure depends heavily on where you’re flying to, from, and through.
Middle East: The Epicentre
Airspace closures across parts of Iran, Iraq, and the wider Gulf region have forced airlines to reroute flights on longer, more fuel-intensive paths. Airports in Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain have faced the most direct impact, with thousands of flights grounded.
Tourism revenues across the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have plunged, with the World Travel & Tourism Council estimating losses of around US$600 million per day in international visitor spending across the wider Gulf region.
South and Southeast Asia: Fuel Import Dependency
Countries like India, Vietnam, and Thailand depend heavily on Gulf oil imports. Global aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have more than doubled since earlier this year, though India’s government has capped the domestic ATF price increase at 25%, pushing airlines like IndiGo, Air India, and Akasa Air to impose steep surcharges.
Travellers flying between Delhi, Mumbai, and Gulf destinations like Dubai and Jeddah are seeing some of the steepest fare increases. Vietnamese carriers are also bracing for jet fuel shortages as supply chains tighten.
Europe: Shortages Expected by May
Jet fuel prices in Europe have doubled since late February. Experts predict that European airports will begin facing fuel supply shortages as early as May 2026, which could lead to further delays and reduced flight availability. Long-haul routes connecting Europe to Asia and the Middle East are particularly affected, since many of these previously flew over now-restricted airspace.
North America: Capacity Cuts Underway
North American carriers have not escaped. On peak disruption days, 14.6% of departures from North America were cancelled, up from around 4.4% on the same day the previous year. US airlines like Delta and American have each absorbed roughly US$400 million in additional fuel costs in the first quarter of 2026.
What You Can Do to Protect Your Travel Plans
The situation is volatile, but there are practical steps you can take right now to reduce the impact on your travel.
Book Early and Compare Across Airlines
Fuel surcharges are being revised frequently, sometimes within days. Booking sooner locks in current pricing before the next round of increases. Use Wego’s flight search to compare fares and surcharges across multiple airlines in one place, since surcharge policies vary widely between carriers.
Choose Flexible Fare Options
With cancellations still happening regularly, avoid non-refundable tickets if your budget allows it. Many airlines are offering flexible rebooking on routes affected by the crisis. Check your airline’s crisis policy page before booking.
Know Your Refund and Rebooking Rights
If your flight is cancelled by the airline, you are entitled to either a full refund or rebooking on the next available flight at no extra cost. This applies regardless of your ticket type. Key rules by region:
- US flights: Under US DOT rules, airlines must issue automatic cash refunds for cancelled flights within 7 business days (credit card) or 20 calendar days (cash).
- EU/UK flights: You’re entitled to a refund or rebooking. Fixed compensation (€250-€600) may not apply if the cancellation is due to “extraordinary circumstances” like a geopolitical conflict, but your right to a refund or alternative flight is guaranteed.
- India: The DGCA requires airlines to offer a full refund or rebooking for cancelled flights.
Track Flight Status Before Heading to the Airport
Cancellations are still happening with short notice. Use the Wego Flight Tracker to check the real-time status of your flight before leaving for the airport. You can also track specific airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, or IndiGo for the latest updates.
Consider Alternative Routes
If your usual route goes through affected Middle East hubs, look into alternative connections. Routes through Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, or Istanbul may offer more stable options, though they might come with longer travel times.
What’s Next: How Long Could the Fuel Crisis Last?
The honest answer is that nobody knows for certain. But several developments offer clues about the trajectory.
Emergency Oil Reserves Are Buying Time
On 11 March 2026, IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated release in the agency’s history. Asian member countries began releasing stocks immediately, with European and American reserves following from late March.
This has helped stabilise prices somewhat, but the IEA itself acknowledges it’s a buffer, not a solution. The most important factor for a return to normal, according to the agency, is the resumption of regular shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Partial Reopening of the Strait
On 26 March, Iran announced that ships from China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan would be allowed to transit the Strait. Malaysia and Thailand have since been granted access too. This is a partial easing, but it still leaves most Western-allied shipping locked out.
The IEA’s Demand Reduction Roadmap
The IEA has published a 10-point plan to cut oil use that governments are starting to adopt. The measures target 2.7 million barrels per day in demand reduction and include encouraging remote work, lowering highway speed limits, and critically for travellers, recommending a 40% reduction in business flights, which could cut jet fuel demand by 7-15%.
You can track which countries have adopted specific measures through the IEA’s 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker.
What This Means for Travellers
Higher airfares and reduced flight availability are likely to persist through at least mid-2026. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens more broadly, prices could begin easing. If the conflict escalates or the partial reopening stalls, further cuts and fare increases are likely.
The best approach right now is to plan ahead, stay flexible, and monitor developments closely. Bookmark the Wego Flight Tracker and check airline policy pages before booking.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly are fuel demand controls?
Fuel demand controls are government-imposed measures designed to reduce fuel consumption when supply is critically low. They can include speed limit reductions, remote work mandates, restrictions on non-essential business travel, and alternate driving day policies. The IEA estimates these measures could collectively reduce global oil demand by 2.7 million barrels per day.
Will my flight be cancelled because of the fuel shortage?
It depends on your route and airline. Flights through and within the Middle East face the highest risk of cancellation. Airlines globally are also trimming schedules by 5-10% on less profitable routes. Check your flight status regularly on the Wego Flight Tracker and sign up for alerts from your airline.
Can I get a refund if my flight is cancelled due to the fuel crisis?
Yes. If the airline cancels your flight, you are entitled to a full refund or rebooking at no extra cost, regardless of the reason for cancellation. In the US, this must be an automatic cash refund. In the EU/UK, you can choose between a refund and an alternative flight. Contact your airline directly or check their crisis policy page for current procedures.
How long will flight prices stay high?
Most analysts expect elevated airfares through at least mid-2026. Prices are closely tied to the Strait of Hormuz situation. If broader shipping access resumes, fuel costs and fares should begin to ease. The IEA’s emergency oil reserve release is providing a temporary cushion, but a lasting solution requires the restoration of regular oil supply routes.
Sources
- IEA Oil Market Report – March 2026
- IEA Emergency Oil Stock Release Announcement
- IEA 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use
- IEA 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker
- IATA Chart of the Week – 13 March 2026
- IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor
- US Department of Transportation – Refunds
- Al Jazeera – Strait of Hormuz and Oil Markets
- NBC News – Global Jet Fuel Shortage
- CNBC – IEA Oil Crisis Consumer Advice
- Business Today – India Fuel Surcharge Hikes
- TTG Asia – Asia-Pacific Airline Surcharges
Disclaimer: Wego strives to ensure all information presented in this article is accurate and up to date at the time of publication. Travel policies, prices, visa requirements, and conditions can change rapidly. We strongly recommend verifying critical details with official sources before making travel decisions. Wego does not accept liability for any inaccuracies, oversights, or changes that may occur after publication.
