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Islamabad Peace Talks Collapse: What the Failed US-Iran Negotiations Mean for Your Travel Plans

Last updated: May 12, 2026

US and Iranian officials sat down in Islamabad on 10–12 April 2026 for the first face-to-face negotiations since the conflict began on 28 February. The talks lasted more than 21 hours and ended without a deal. For travellers, this means the situation described in Scenario 3 below — a breakdown — is now the operating reality.

The two-week ceasefire announced on 7 April remains technically in effect until around 21–22 April, but it is now under severe strain. The US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports on 12 April, which went into effect on 14 April. The ceasefire could still be extended if diplomatic channels reopen, but as of now, the risk of full resumption of hostilities is higher than at any point since the ceasefire was declared.

Here’s what the failed talks mean for your flights, fares, and bookings right now.

Table of Contents

What Happened in Islamabad

The negotiations collapsed over Iran’s refusal to commit to ending all uranium enrichment, dismantling major enrichment facilities, removing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, ending support for allied militant groups, and opening the Strait of Hormuz without charging passage tolls. US Vice President Vance described the US offer as “best and final.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the two sides came close but that the US engaged in “maximalism and shifting goalposts.”

Following the collapse, President Trump announced a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas, which the US military began enforcing on 14 April. The US has said it will allow ships transiting between non-Iranian ports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but the blockade represents a major escalation that puts the ceasefire in serious jeopardy.

What This Means for Flights and Airfares

The Strait of Hormuz

The US naval blockade has sent oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude surged past $102 a barrel on 13 April — up from the mid-$90s following the ceasefire announcement, and still well above pre-conflict levels of around $73 a barrel. If the blockade tightens or the ceasefire collapses entirely, analysts at JPMorgan have warned crude could reach $150 a barrel, which would push airfares to their highest levels yet.

Airspace restrictions

Iran’s airspace remains completely closed to commercial flights. Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain are also shut. The UAE and Qatar continue to operate with heavily restricted airspace and limited entry and exit points. EASA has extended its advisory against flying over the Middle East and Persian Gulf through 24 April 2026 and will review the bulletin again at that date.

These closures continue to force flights between Europe and Asia onto longer, more expensive routes. A resolution to the conflict would be needed before any meaningful airspace reopening — and the failed talks make that less likely in the near term.

The Lebanon situation

Lebanon remains explicitly excluded from the US-Iran ceasefire, and Israeli military operations in Lebanon have continued and intensified since the ceasefire was announced. Beirut airport is technically open but operating at roughly 10–15% of normal capacity, with only Middle East Airlines and Royal Jordanian running limited scheduled services. Most international airlines have suspended flights to Beirut indefinitely.

For travellers routing through the eastern Mediterranean — via Amman, Larnaca, or Beirut — the Lebanon situation remains highly unpredictable and shows no sign of near-term improvement.

The Current Picture: Scenario 3 Is Now Operating Reality

The article originally outlined three scenarios. The Islamabad talks have collapsed and the US blockade is in effect. Here is what that means in practice for travellers.

Over 18,000 flights have been cancelled in April 2026 alone, with more than 5.4 million seats removed from the market. Cancellations are still running at approximately 10% of scheduled capacity.
The Strait of Hormuz is now under US naval blockade, with oil already above $102 a barrel and the risk of further price spikes if the ceasefire expires without renewal.
European and US carriers have extended suspensions well into 2026. Lufthansa Group has suspended most Middle East destinations until October 2026. British Airways has cancelled Dubai and Amman flights through May 2026, with Abu Dhabi suspended indefinitely. Air France and KLM suspensions similarly run through at least the EASA advisory period.
Travel advisories remain at their highest levels across Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon (Level 4 Do Not Travel from the US State Department), with elevated advisories across much of the Gulf region.
A second round of talks remains possible. US officials have said they are open to a further meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expires around 21–22 April, should diplomatic channels allow. But no date or location has been confirmed.

Current Airline Operations by Hub

Dubai and Abu Dhabi

Dubai remains open and operational. Emirates is operating at roughly 60–70% of pre-conflict capacity. flydubai continues scheduled services. Combined departures from Dubai International Airport remain the highest of any Gulf hub since the conflict began.

Abu Dhabi is also operational, with Etihad at approximately 45% of pre-conflict capacity. Both airports continue to face the risk of short-notice disruptions driven by airspace restrictions rather than airport closures.

The key risk at both airports is not closure — it is ongoing last-minute cancellations and schedule changes tied to airspace availability. Given the blockade and the heightened tensions following the failed talks, that risk has increased since the ceasefire was announced.

Doha

Qatar Airways has been ramping up steadily — operating 111 daily departures on 14 April and resuming services to both Amman and Beirut today. The airline’s target of serving 120+ destinations by 15 June remains in place, though that timeline depends heavily on how the situation develops over the coming weeks.

Saudi Arabia

Jeddah and Riyadh remain accessible, with Saudia continuing to operate. Dammam has been absorbing diverted operations from closed airports in the northern Gulf. For Hajj and Umrah travellers, Saudi airports are functioning — but routes may be longer and fares higher due to airspace closures to the north and east.

Muscat — still a relatively stable alternative

Muscat has remained one of the more consistent hubs in the region throughout the crisis. Oman Air added temporary extra flights on key routes earlier in the conflict, and Muscat continues to handle connections. It is not immune to disruption, but it sits outside the most restricted airspace and has seen fewer cancellations than Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi.

Kuwait and Bahrain — still closed

Kuwait International Airport remains closed to all commercial flights. Physical damage to terminal infrastructure, radar systems, and fuel facilities sustained during the conflict requires repair and safety certification before the airport can reopen — some sources suggest a possible gradual reopening in late May or June 2026 at the earliest, but this is unconfirmed. Kuwait Airways is currently operating a limited schedule from King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, as a temporary hub.

Bahrain International Airport also remains suspended, with Gulf Air halted until the airspace is declared safe.

What You Should Do With Your Bookings Right Now

If you have existing bookings for the next 2–4 weeks

The situation has deteriorated since the ceasefire was announced. The failed talks and US blockade mean the risk of further disruption is higher now than it was on 8 April.

Do not assume your booking is safe. Check your airline’s current schedule on the Wego flight tracker — schedules are changing frequently. If your airline is offering a free rebooking or cancellation waiver, seriously consider using it. Know your options before you need them.

If you’re considering booking summer travel to the Gulf

Book flexible only. The blockade and the proximity of the ceasefire expiry date (around 21–22 April) make the next two weeks particularly high-risk. Only purchase tickets with free cancellation or rebooking.
Some airlines are offering significantly discounted fares on Gulf routes to stimulate demand. These are real deals — but only worth taking if you have a fully flexible ticket and appropriate insurance.
Standard travel insurance does not cover conflict-related disruptions. You need a “Cancel for Any Reason” (CFAR) or “Interrupt for Any Reason” (IFAR) policy. These typically need to be purchased within 14–21 days of your first trip booking.

If you’re a wait-and-see traveller

The ceasefire expires around 21–22 April. That date is now the clearest decision point for summer travel planning. Watch for whether a second round of US-Iran talks is announced before then, and whether the naval blockade escalates or is paused. Do not commit to non-refundable bookings before that date passes — the picture will be significantly clearer by late April.

Use Wego’s flight search to monitor fare trends on your routes. If you find a flexible fare that makes sense, lock it in — but only if you can cancel it without penalty.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Islamabad talks produce any agreement?

No. The talks ended on 12 April after more than 21 hours of negotiations without a deal. The US said Iran refused its “best, final offer.” Iran said the US engaged in “maximalism.” A second round of talks is possible before the ceasefire expires around 21–22 April, but no date or location has been confirmed.

Is the ceasefire still in effect?

Technically yes — the two-week ceasefire announced on 7 April runs until around 21–22 April. But it is under severe strain. The US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports on 12 April, which came into effect on 14 April. Whether the ceasefire holds through its expiry date, or whether a second agreement is reached, remains uncertain.

When will airfares return to normal?

Not soon. With the Islamabad talks failing and oil now above $102 a barrel following the blockade announcement, fares are unlikely to ease in the near term. IATA has warned jet fuel supply chains could take months to recover even under the best circumstances. A full return to pre-conflict fare levels is not expected before late 2026 at the earliest — and that assumes a durable political resolution.

Is it safe to book a summer trip to Dubai or Abu Dhabi?

Both cities are receiving flights and their airports are operational. The risk is ongoing disruption — last-minute cancellations, schedule changes, rerouting — rather than full closure. That risk has increased following the failed talks and the US blockade. Only book with a fully flexible ticket and appropriate travel insurance, and be prepared to change your plans on short notice.

Should I avoid connecting through the Gulf entirely?

Dubai and Abu Dhabi are handling connections, and Muscat is a more stable alternative hub. Qatar Airways has resumed some routes including Amman and Beirut as of 14 April. Avoid routing through Kuwait or Bahrain — both airports remain closed. If you’re connecting through Doha, be aware Qatar Airways is still building back capacity and connection options remain limited compared to pre-conflict levels.

Does travel insurance cover cancellations caused by this conflict?

Standard travel insurance policies generally exclude war and military action. To be covered for conflict-related disruptions, you need a “Cancel for Any Reason” (CFAR) or “Interrupt for Any Reason” (IFAR) policy. These must typically be purchased within 14–21 days of your first trip booking. Always check the specific terms of your policy before assuming you’re covered.

Sources

Disclaimer: Wego strives to ensure all information presented in this article is accurate and up to date at the time of publication. Travel policies, prices, visa requirements, and conditions can change rapidly. We strongly recommend verifying critical details with official sources before making travel decisions. Wego does not accept liability for any inaccuracies, oversights, or changes that may occur after publication.