Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal: Will Gulf Airfares Fall? (June 2026 Update)

Last updated: Jun 15, 2026

Oil prices have already fallen on news of the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

But will your Gulf airfare drop too? Not right away — here is why.

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Why Airfares Rose in the First Place

The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world’s oil. When it was shut early in 2026, energy prices spiked and airlines passed the cost on to passengers.

What happened to prices:

Brent crude jumped past $100 a barrel in March and peaked near $120
Jet fuel rose even faster — up roughly 137% in about four weeks, according to IATA
Airlines added fuel surcharges and raised fares, with some routes up 30–70%

What the Deal Means for Prices

Oil has already eased on news of the deal. Brent fell to its lowest since early March as a peace agreement looked likely.

Why prices are softening:

The draft agreement lifts oil sanctions and gives Iran 30 days to reopen the strait
As shipping returns, the wartime “risk premium” on oil is unwinding
Lower crude usually feeds through to cheaper jet fuel, and eventually fares

As of 15 June 2026, the deal is not yet signed — a signing is expected this week. For the flight and airspace side of the story, see our guide to the Strait of Hormuz deal and what it means for travellers.

Will Airfares Come Down? Not Immediately

Cheaper oil takes time to reach your ticket. Even once the strait reopens, relief will be gradual rather than overnight.

What holds fares up for now:

Mines must be cleared and idled output restarted before oil fully flows
Jet fuel supply can take months to recover, the IATA has warned
Airlines buy fuel ahead and adjust fares slowly, so savings lag

Expect fares to ease through the second half of 2026, with a return to pre-crisis pricing unlikely this year.

What Travellers Should Do

A few simple moves while prices settle:

Watch fares on your route and book when you see a good price rather than waiting for a big drop
Choose flexible tickets while the deal beds in
Compare routes on Wego to see which carriers operate your journey

Frequently Asked Questions

Are oil prices falling after the deal?

Yes. Brent crude has dropped to its lowest since early March on news of the US-Iran deal, as the wartime risk premium unwinds and traders expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.

Will airfares drop straight away?

No. Cheaper oil takes time to reach tickets. Mines still need clearing, jet fuel supply can take months to recover, and airlines adjust fares slowly. Expect gradual easing through the second half of 2026.

Why are Gulf tickets still expensive?

Fuel surcharges added during the crisis are still in place, and airlines that locked in fuel at high prices pass those costs on until contracts roll over. Fares ease only as fuel costs fall through.

Does the deal affect my flight?

It is mainly a shipping and prices story. For whether flights are running and which airspace is open, see our guide to the Strait of Hormuz deal and what it means for travellers.

Should I book now or wait?

If you find a fair price on your route, book it with flexible terms. Waiting for a sharp overnight drop is risky, since fare relief is expected to be gradual rather than sudden.

Sources

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