If you have a Ryanair flight booked this summer, or you’re planning one — here’s the headline: CEO Michael O’Leary has warned that 5% to 10% of summer flights could be cancelled due to jet fuel shortages caused by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Cancellations could start from May, with just days of notice, and the airline won’t get to choose which routes are cut.
Here’s what this means for your trip, what your rights are, and what you should do right now.
Could My Ryanair Flight Be Cancelled?
In early April 2026, O’Leary said that if the Iran war didn’t end “by the end of April,” European airlines would start cutting scheduled flights.
He predicted 5% to 10% of Ryanair flights through May, June, and July could be affected.
Ryanair won’t decide which routes to cancel. Cuts depend on which airports physically run out of fuel, and the airline expects only a few days’ warning from suppliers.
Will My Ryanair Fare Go Up?
If You’ve Already Booked
Your fare is locked in. Airlines cannot retroactively add a fuel surcharge to tickets already purchased. Whatever you paid at booking is what you owe.
If You’re Booking Now
Expect higher prices. IATA Director General Willie Walsh has warned European airfares could rise by around 8–9%.
Ryanair is better insulated than most carriers — the airline has roughly 80% of its fuel hedged at about $67 per barrel for the financial year ending March 2027 — but the remaining 20% is exposed to spot crude prices that are roughly 40% higher than budgeted, and jet-fuel crack spreads have widened far beyond that.
O’Leary has “strongly advised” anyone planning summer travel to book as soon as possible before fares climb further. With fewer flights and strong demand, available seats will get scarcer and pricier.
Your Rights if Ryanair Cancels Your Flight
What You’re Guaranteed Under EU261 / UK261
If Ryanair cancels your flight, EU Regulation 261/2004 guarantees you:
- A full refund within 7 days, or
- Rebooking on the next available flight to your destination, or
- Rebooking at a later date of your choice
UK travellers: Since Brexit, flights departing from UK airports are covered by UK261 (the UK’s retained version of EU261), which provides the same protections with compensation amounts converted to sterling. Flights departing from EU airports remain covered by EU261.
If you’re stranded at the airport, Ryanair must provide meals, refreshments, hotel accommodation (if an overnight stay is needed), and two free phone calls or emails.
Will You Get Compensation on Top of That?
Under EU261, compensation ranges from €250 to €600 depending on flight distance (or the sterling equivalent under UK261):
| Flight Distance | Compensation | Example Routes |
|---|---|---|
| Up to 1,500 km | €250 | London Stansted to Dublin |
| 1,500–3,500 km | €400 | London to Barcelona |
| Over 3,500 km (non-EU) | €600 | Rarely applies to Ryanair’s network |
However, airlines don’t have to pay compensation if the cancellation was caused by “extraordinary circumstances” beyond their control.
Ryanair will almost certainly argue that a war-driven fuel shortage qualifies. Consumer groups say this may be legally contested, since fuel procurement is normally an airline’s operational responsibility — but don’t count on receiving compensation for these cancellations.
The bottom line: refund or rebooking is guaranteed. Monetary compensation is uncertain.
How to Claim Your Refund
If cancelled, Ryanair will email you with options. You can also go to the My Bookings section on Ryanair.com.
Refunds go to your Ryanair Wallet within 24 hours, and you can transfer the balance to your original payment method within 5 working days.
Booked through a travel agent? You may need to complete Ryanair’s customer verification form first, as third-party bookings often use the agent’s contact and payment details rather than yours.
What You Should Do Right Now
Monitor Your Flight
Cancellations may be announced just days before departure. Keep your contact details up to date with Ryanair and track your flight through the Wego flight tracker. Check for updates regularly — don’t wait for an email.
Book Flexible If You Haven’t Booked Yet
Consider paying for Ryanair’s Flexi Plus fare. It waives change fees for date and route changes on the day of travel — route changes must be within the same departure and destination country, made up to one hour before departure, and you only pay any fare difference.
The premium is small compared with the cost of being stuck on a non-flexible ticket during a summer of uncertainty. Compare fares across carriers on Wego to find the best options.
Check Your Travel Insurance
Many standard policies exclude “acts of war” — which is exactly how the Iran conflict is classified. Before relying on your existing cover, verify it explicitly includes airline cancellations caused by conflict-related disruptions. If it doesn’t, consider upgrading.
Have a Backup Route
If you’re heading to a destination served by multiple airports, identify alternatives now. For example, if your flight to Palma de Mallorca gets cut, which other carriers fly there from a nearby airport? Do this research before disruptions hit — not the day you get a cancellation email.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Ryanair definitely cancel flights this summer?
Nothing is confirmed yet. O’Leary has warned of 5–10% cuts through May, June, and July if jet fuel supply does not normalise. A US–Iran ceasefire was announced on 8 April 2026, but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as of 21 April, so the underlying fuel risk has not gone away. Whether Ryanair cancellations materialise depends on how quickly Gulf tanker traffic resumes and which airports run short.
Can Ryanair add a fuel surcharge to my existing booking?
No. Airlines cannot retroactively add surcharges to tickets already purchased. Your locked-in fare stays as-is.
Which Ryanair routes are most at risk?
UK airports are the most exposed, followed by Portugal and Hungary. Four northern Italian airports — Bologna, Milan Linate, Venice Marco Polo, and Treviso — are already under fuel rationing. Cancellations depend on which airports physically run short, not route popularity.
Should I avoid booking Ryanair this summer?
The risk applies to all European carriers, not just Ryanair. With roughly 80% of its fuel hedged until March 2027, Ryanair is actually better protected than most. Booking early, choosing flexible fares, and having good travel insurance are smarter moves than avoiding a specific airline.
Sources
- ITV News — Ryanair boss warns airline may cut one in 10 summer flights unless war ends soon
- Fortune — Ryanair CEO says book summer trips before fares soar
- Euronews — Jet fuel crisis: Rationing triggered at four airports in Italy
- Argus Media — UK most at risk in Europe from jet and diesel squeeze
- Al Jazeera — US–Iran ceasefire deal: What are the terms, and what’s next?
- NPR — Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again, as ceasefire nears its end
- CNBC — Europe could run out of jet fuel in 6 weeks, IEA warns
- IEA — Update on collective action decision of 11 March 2026
- Euronews — SAS to cancel 1,000 flights in April after jet fuel price doubles
- EUR-Lex — Regulation (EC) No 261/2004 on Air Passenger Rights
- Ryanair Help Centre — Refund Policy
- Ryanair Help Centre — Benefits of booking Flexi Plus Fare
Disclaimer: Wego strives to ensure all information presented in this article is accurate and up to date at the time of publication. Travel policies, prices, visa requirements, and conditions can change rapidly. We strongly recommend verifying critical details with official sources before making travel decisions. Wego does not accept liability for any inaccuracies, oversights, or changes that may occur after publication.
