Wego Travel Pulse ‘Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent’ 10 September 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search interest in MENA remains flat at approximately a third of 2019 levels
• Late August/early September saw the typical post-Eid lull in travel interest across a number of MENA markets 
• On September 4th, the European Commission issued a new set of COVID-related criteria for travel restrictions to the EU link. We have updated our charts to reflect the latest thresholds
• Tunisia continues to be the only MENA country on EU’s safe country list. While Turkey is now also meeting the criteria, political developments might be hurting its chances for enlisting 
• Should current favourable trends continue, KSA and Qatar can expect to be on EU’s list before the end of September
• Egypt is the MENA country with strongest momentum- last few weeks saw a burst of interest for international travel
• With continued stream of developments on Phase 3 vaccine trials and rapid tests already starting to be deployed in various parts of the world, we are cautiously optimistic about travel sentiment improving in the near future

GCC: Travel Pulse

 

GCC: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• Overall search interest decreased during the post-Eid period, staying below 30% of 2019 levels
• Domestic travel for both flights and hotels continues to be the driving force 
  • domestic hotels have now stabilised around 50% of 2019 levels after dropping from the Eid heights
  • interest in domestic flights is on par with domestic hotels 
• Land border restrictions continue to be eased. Saudi families are now allowed to pass through four border crossing points and trucks can enter from all neighbouring states
• International air travel continues to be restricted and search interest continues to stagnate at less than 20%

COVID Trends in KSA

• Test positivity rate continues to consistently improve indicating the situation is largely under control
• With EU raising the threshold for density of cases to 25 on 4th September, KSA is almost meeting bloc’s safe country requirements. Should the positive trend persist, KSA would be expected to be on EU’s next list of safe countries

Travel Demand from UAE

• The post-Eid lull for international travel continues as restrictions are largely still in place 
• Domestic hotels remain the main growth driver helped by the easing of local restrictions and the lack of outbound alternatives 
• The resumption of the school year with kids physically present has also traditionally dampened ability to travel

COVID Trends in UAE

• UAE continues to have by far the best test positivity rate in MENA on par with the safest countries worldwide 
• The increase of new cases is largely due to an influx of asymptomatic inbound travellers from nearby countries choosing to temporarily stay in UAE as a workaround for their own countries’ more restrictive travel policies
• While the increase in cases is largely controlled, it also makes satisfying EU’s safe country criteria harder to time

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• UAE continues to have by far the best test positivity rate in MENA on par with the safest countries worldwide 
• The increase of new cases is largely due to an influx of asymptomatic inbound travellers from nearby countries choosing to temporarily stay in UAE as a workaround for their own countries’ more restrictive travel policies
• While the increase in cases is largely controlled, it also makes satisfying EU’s safe country criteria harder to time

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• The test positivity rate is slightly improving although the improvement is gradual and the rate is still very high
• A more aggressive testing program for asymptomatic cases is likely required in order to shorten the recovery timeline

Travel Demand from Qatar

• Interest in staycations continues to spike. September 2nd in particular saw a huge 500% increase over 2019 levels with Ar Rayyan attracting the majority of search interest
• As the health situation is increasingly under control, a potential admittance to EU’s list of safe countries can dramatically spike up interest in international travel

COVID Trends in Qatar

• The density of new cases is still higher than what’s considered safe, yet the trend is continuously improving and with EU implementing a less strict requirement for new cases, Qatar might meet the requirement sooner
• Test positivity rate is approaching 4% and is close to meeting EU’s requirement recently made more stringent
• Simple extrapolation of the recent trend suggest that Qatar might satisfy EU’s safe levels sometime in late September

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• With the gradual easing of local restrictions, staycations have remained popular with the locals
• While international travel has remained muted due to travel restrictions, the coming weeks should be interesting as Bahrain opened its borders for inbound tourism from close to 200 countries 

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• Bahrain has one of the highest testing rates worldwide catching a lot of the asymptomatic cases and leading to a high density of COVID new cases
• Test positivity rate continues to fall and is near the new EU safe level of 3%. Assuming the improvement continues, the number of new cases should eventually start decreasing as well

Travel Demand from Oman

• The post second lockdown led to a surge of interest in domestic hotels.  The city of Sohar continues to attract most of the incremental interest
• While the recent surge in domestic hotels is exciting, Oman continues to be heavily impacted by the pandemic
• With the announcement to reopen airports for international travel in October, we expect to see an increase in searches for flights in the coming months 

COVID Trends in Oman

• The sharp drop in new cases of COVID since early August is due to an official policy to slow down testing of non-severe cases
• With no data on testing reported since mid-August, it is unclear how reflective of an overall improving situation the latest reports on new cases are

North Africa: Travel Pulse

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• Egypt is showing the most positive momentum in recent weeks.  Travel interest is now close to 75% of 2019 levels having been near 50% just two weeks ago 
• Domestic travel continues to perform well, yet the recent surge has been thanks to a major increase in travel interest to nearby countries with significant populations of Egyptians working abroad- KSA, Kuwait and UAE

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The number of new cases remains very low even by global standards
• The lack of systematic reporting on testing continues to undermine the trustworthiness of the case numbers

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• Widely seen as the MENA country that has best dealt with the pandemic, Tunisia remains the only MENA country whose citizens can enter most European countries 
• While new cases increased in August and curfews have been implemented in some regions, interest in travel remained strong throughout last month
• Similar to Egypt, the first week of September saw a surge in interest in flights to countries with large diasporas of Tunisians- Saudi Arabia, Jordan and, in Europe, Italy.

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• While the number of new cases continues to increase, the test positivity trend has stabilised, potentially an early sign that things are getting under control and the social distancing measures are starting to have an effect
• With EU having increased the threshold for density of new cases, Tunisia is now well within the safe range 

Travel Demand from Morocco

• Travel interest in Morocco remains relatively strong overall though there have been changes to the destination mix
• With the country no longer on EU’s safe list, travel interest to Spain, France and Italy cratered 
• A surge in travel search activity to KSA and Turkey, however, largely offset the decreases seen to Europe 

COVID Trends in Morocco

• The sharp increase in new cases and test positivity has continued since our previous update, yet, both are starting to show signs of tapering suggesting that government measures are beginning to have effect

Travel Demand from Algeria

• EU’s decision to drop Algeria from the safe list in early August put a growth cap for international travel yet it fueled interest in domestic travel with smaller cities like Oran, Annaba and Constantine showing a sharp rise in interest

COVID Trends in Algeria

• The number of new cases continues to decrease and is significantly less than the new EU level 
• The lack on visibility on testing remains a critical point before a re-admission to EU’s safe list of countries can happen

Turkey & Levant: Travel Pulse

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• With flights to most countries already allowed, interest in international travel continues to be reasonably good 
• Concerns surrounding the stability of the Turkish lira continues to limit the domestic recovery
• Border tensions with neighbouring Greece might influence EU’s decision whether to include the country on the safe travel list.  Turkey is already meeting the latest safe country requirements 

COVID Trends in Turkey

• The recent increase in new cases is likely a byproduct of Turkey opening up in August to save its tourism season
• As new COVID cases have started to increase, the country has implemented a new set of strict measures the effectiveness of which will be become clear in the coming weeks

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

• Lebanon is the only country in MENA and possibly the world where the recovery in flights is surpassing the recovery in accommodation
• While accommodation is largely depressed due to the unique mix of economic and political factors on top of the health considerations, the large diaspora of Lebanese expats trying to ensure livelihood has kept flights at respectable levels

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• Cases have finally slowed their rapid increase though it remains to be seen if the trends are sustained.  The density of new cases is also significantly higher than safe levels
• Lack of data on testing makes assessing the virus situation difficult to assess

Travel Demand from Jordan

• The strong performance of domestic hotels in Jordan continues. August, similar to July, ended up measurably higher than an average month in 2019
• With Jordan restarting flights and reopening for inbound tourism, interest in flights started to grow in early September though it is too early to tell how sustainable the trend is

COVID Trends in Jordan

• The density of new cases continues to be well within safe levels, yet starting to report data on testing would be required in Jordan being widely recognised as a safe country