Wego Travel Pulse “Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent” 21 October 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search interest in MENA has taken a step back and is currently at 36.4% of 2019 levels
• The rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 cases in a number of markets worldwide including several MENA countries has depressed interest in travel from September’s highs
• Most North African and Levant countries are currently experiencing an exponentially growing number of new cases with several countries having already imposed lockdowns 
• Initial results from Phase III vaccine trials in KSA, UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Bahrain are expected to start coming out soon
• Outside MENA, rapid antigen testing continues to gain wider acceptance and is now deployed in several major airports in UK, USA, Canada, Italy among an increasing number of other ones
• While the second wave appears to be hitting Europe and North America at levels that exceed even those from last Spring, the lower CFRs and impending wide-adoption of rapid testing gives hope for travel to gradually restart even without the pandemic fully over

GCC: Travel Pulse

GCC: TOP Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• With cases of COVID-19 resurging worldwide, international travel is now back to the levels before September 15 when KSA opened up the borders
• As previously reported, the majority of interest for international travel is for trips around New Years Eve.  Cairo, followed by Dubai and Alexandria are the top destinations with interest on par with last year levels
• Interest in domestic travel for both flights and hotels remains strong around 50% of 2019 levels
• In October, KSA resumed the second phase of Umrah pilgrimage and resumed hiring of domestic workers for the first time in almost seven months

COVID Trends in KSA

• KSA continues to be doing great in managing the pandemic with all metrics trending is the right direction
• The pandemic has continued to deteriorate worldwide. While KSA has been meeting EU’s safe criteria for two months now, at present no European countries are meeting EU’s own criteria making the easing of travel restrictions unlikely in the immediate future

Travel Demand from UAE

• International travel remains muted as restrictions are still in place and COVID cases continues to rise 
• Interest in flights to Kuwait fell down by over 50% in the past two weeks, yet Kuwait remains UAE’s top destination
• Domestic hotel stays continue to be the main growth driver, accounting for more searches than all international destinations combined.  Interest in staycations has been within 50-60% range of 2019 levels for the past two months

COVID Trends in UAE

• Test positivity rate remains extremely good in UAE thanks to the extensive testing. UAE is the only country in the world to have done more tests than the size of its population
• The number of new COVID-19 cases, however, continues to increase largely due to the high test levels
• Initial results from the phase III clinical vaccine trials are expected to soon be available

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• Interest for international travel is still mute at roughly 25% of 2019 levels as travel continues to be heavily restricted 
• Turkey and its largest city, Istanbul, continue to be the top leisure destinations for trips that include hotel stays.  Interest for Istanbul is roughly twice that of the next top destination- Kuwait City. 
• Egypt remains the top flight destination thanks to the large diaspora of Egyptians working in Kuwait.  However, interest in flights to Cairo dropped by over 20% last week while interest in second-place Istanbul has kept stable

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• After the case numbers started to improve in late September/early October, they began to increase again recently
• Test positivity remains in the high teens and continues to be a concern

Travel Demand from Qatar

• Qatar extended quarantine rules for the remainder of 2020 dampening interest in international travel
• Qatar Airways now flies to 100 cities around the world, yet the border restrictions have kept interest in international travel at a quarter of last year levels
• While interest in domestic staycations has waned somewhat, it remains the main growth driver exceeding interest in all international destinations combined
• Ar Rayyan remains among the most attractive domestic destination 

COVID Trends in Qatar

• All COVID trends continue to improve. If it continues this way, Qatar is likely to meet EU’s safe country standards sometime in November
• Test positivity rate is now under 4%- the third lowest in MENA behind KSA and UAE

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• After a brief surge in late September, interest in outbound travel is back to less than 40% of 2019 levels for flights and under 20% for accommodation
• Interest in domestic accommodation has been and remains the strongest driver over the pandemic- Madinat Hamad, Madinat Isa and more recently Az Zallaq have been popular staycation destinations
• Rapid test trials are currently ongoing and might prove an effective, balanced approach to mitigate health risks while keeping the economy strong

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• Bahrain has one of the highest testing rates worldwide catching a lot of the asymptomatic cases 
• New cases continue to improve sharply though Bahrain continues to be the country with highest density of COVID-19 cases in MENA
• The test positivity rate has also been improving and is already under 4%- EU’s requirement might be satisfied before the end of the month

Travel Demand from Oman

• Interest in domestic hotels continues to be relatively strong despite the restart of the curfew on 9th October 
• The capital city of Muscat remains the top accommodation destination though other domestic cities such as Sohar, Salalah, and Seeb have had surges of interest as well 
• The early October boost in flights was thanks to the resumption of scheduled flights to Europe and Egypt on 1st October. While flight interest has waned somewhat since, it remains strong all things considered

COVID Trends in Oman

• The increase of new COVID cases continues, though, it remains unclear if the increase is due to a higher rate of testing
• There is still no new data on testing reported

North Africa: Travel Pulse

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• Overall travel sentiments remains just under 70% of 2019 levels- highest in MENA 
• KSA’s decision to reopen on 15th Sept caused a dramatic surge in travel interest as KSA is home to the largest diaspora of Egyptians outside Egypt. Travel interest has remained strong since 
• Last week’s surge in interest in domestic accommodation has mostly been for the coastal resorts Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada with both exceeding 2X the 2019 levels 

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The density of new cases in official statistics remains extremely low by both MENA and global standards
• The lack of systematic reporting on testing continues to undermine the trustworthiness of the case numbers
• With Egypt securing 25 million vaccines from Russia, the country might be one of the first to have a sizeable portion of its population vaccinated against COVID-19. Additionally, two Chinese vaccines are being trialed in Phase 3 and two Egyptian ones are in Phase 1

 

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• The recent unfavourable COVID trends have depressed interest in domestic travel to 25% of 2019 levels- lowest since April
• Interest in outbound flights, however, remains strong.  Increased interest in travel interest to Turkey and KSA has compensated for the loss of access to the European markets
• Notably, interest in accommodation has stayed stable around 50% of 2019 levels- most of the trips abroad are work or family-related

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• The health situation continues to deteriorate
  • new daily cases continue to increase at a very rapid pace
  • test positivity reached an all-time high of over 40% just before government decided to impose curfew and discontinue reporting data on testing

Travel Demand from Morocco

• While the health situation has significantly deteriorated, interest in flights remains strong especially for domestic travel
• Interest in accommodation remains low suggesting most of the travel is work and family-related 

COVID Trends in Morocco

• The increase in new cases and test positivity continues in October
  • test positivity rate is now in double digit
  • density of cases is consistently over 50 per million 

Travel Demand from Algeria

• Travel remains largely mute in Algeria with domestic accommodation proving to be the lone bright spot by staying above 40% of 2019 levels 
• International travel continues to be heavily restricted and remains less than a quarter of 2019 levels

COVID Trends in Algeria

• The number of new cases of COVID continues to be excellent, however, the lack on visibility on testing remains a critical point in validating Algeria’s success in handling the health situation

Turkey & Levant: Travel Pulse

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• Turkey has kept its borders open helping local business dependent on inbound tourism
• International flights remain strong particularly to Kuwait and KSA. However, recent political tensions with KSA might have repercussions on tourism as well
• The Turkish lira continues to slowly depreciate limiting interest in leisure domestic travel- domestic accommodation is less than 30% of last year levels

COVID Trends in Turkey

• The official COVID statistics remain extremely strong for Turkey.  At present, Turkey is the only country on the European continent that meet EU’s safe country criteria
• Turkey’s exceptionally good stats have come under public scrutiny.  Government has started random screenings across the country to determine the true spread of the virus
• Early results from the Phase III clinical trials for locally produced COVID-19 vaccine are expected soon 

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

• Interest in flights continues to be relatively strong staying above 40% of 2019 levels
• A number of cities and villages remain under a lockdown and new ones are being added, depressing interest in travel domestically or internationally

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• The density of new cases of COVID-19 continues to rapidly increase and is now the second highest in MENA
• Reports from hospitals suggest that the health situation might be getting out of control

Travel Demand from Jordan

• While September was the strongest month for travel since the onset of the pandemic, the rapidly worsening health situation has depressed interest in travel in October
• Interest in flights is currently around half the 2019 levels with international accommodation under a quarter of 2019 levels suggesting most of the travel is for work and family-related
• Domestic accommodation has also slumped dramatically as the case numbers have started to rise and a number of social restrictions were announced

COVID Trends in Jordan

• The health situation has rapidly deteriorated with record number of daily new cases reported 
• Jordan implemented a weekend lockdown starting from 9th October in an attempt to stem the spread of the virus