Wego Travel Pulse “Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent” 24 September 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search interest in MENA surged to half of 2019 levels following KSA’s easing of travel bans
• The news from KSA drove interest in international flights across multiple MENA markets
• Demand for accommodation abroad has remained stable indicating most of the travel surge is work or family-related
• KSA is now the only MENA country meeting EU safe country criteria- no formal enlisting decision as of yet
• Turkey is also meeting EU’s criteria, though political developments might be complicating its case
• Egypt continues to be the MENA country with strongest momentum- travel interest is exceeding 2019 levels!
• A number of MENA countries announced ongoing Phase III clinical trials-  KSA, UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Bahrain
• Outside MENA, several airports and airlines are starting to use rapid tests- Heathrow, Fiumicino, Lufthansa, Alitalia, etc.  As stated in previous editions, we remain cautiously optimistic about travel sentiment improving in the near future

GCC: Travel Pulse

GCC: TOP Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• Travel search interest increased sharply following government’s decision to restart international flights on 15th Sept
  • Interest in international flights is on par with domestic flights & hotels for the first time since March
  • In the days immediately following Saudi’s decision to reopen, interest in international flights peaked at 75%. Since, interest has tapered to roughly 50%- still a significant increase compared to the levels before 15th Sept
  • Interest in international hotel stays continues to lag which is a sign that a lot of the international travel is work or family-related
• While majority of the flight search activity continues to be for travel in the coming week, a notable search peak is starting to form for travel on or after 1st January 2021 which is when KSA will fully reopen 

COVID Trends in KSA

• All key COVID stats are in the safe zone and trending in the right direction 
• As predicted in the previous edition, KSA is now meeting EU’s safe country criteria.  It is the only MENA country to do so
• A decision by the European Commission to allow travel from KSA might be imminent and should provide a significant boost for international travel 
• Yet, the deteriorating health situation in a number of European countries- France, Spain, UK, etc can make EC more conservative in adding new countries to the list

Travel Demand from UAE

• The post-Eid lull for international travel continues as restrictions are largely still in place and the COVID situation continues largely unchanged as well
• Domestic hotels remains the main growth driver. The new precautionary guidelines for spas, high-end hotels, and desert camps issued on 18th September by Abu Dhabi do not seem to have a major negative impact on hotel demand so far though the full impact remains to be seen

COVID Trends in UAE

• UAE continues to have the best test positivity rate in MENA on par with the safest countries worldwide 
• The number of new COVID-19 cases continues to increase, and is now firmly in the red zone, making UAE unlikely to satisfy EU’s safe country criteria in the near future
• The Ministry of Health announced it is in the final stages of Phase III clinical trials for front-line workers

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• Kuwait continues to struggle with the pandemic hindering progress on recovery in travel demand
• 34 countries are now allowed to travel to Kuwait (14-day quarantine and a recent PCR test required): 
  • travel from Singapore was allowed on 15th September
  • travel from France, Argentine and Yemen is no longer allowed
• If the proposal by the Director General of the Directorate of Civil Aviation to  reduce the quarantine period of travellers arriving to Kuwait to 7 days from 14 days is approved, we will see more travel demand in the near future. 

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• Though still very high, the test positivity rate is showing clear signs of improvement suggesting the COVID situation is finally getting under control
• Density of new cases continues to be very high- the second highest in GCC

Travel Demand from Qatar

• Interest in staycations continues to be very high even after early September’s record surge. 
• Ar Rayyan remains the top domestic destination for hotel stays with travel interest significantly above 2019 levels
• While the health trends are now stable rather than improving, the relatively low test positivity rate suggests Qatar is not far off from meeting EU’s safe country criteria.  A potential admittance in October can dramatically spike up interest in international travel

COVID Trends in Qatar

• After the major gains during the summer months, the COVID trends now appear to have plateaued. A further push might be required to get the country to meet EU’s safe country standards
• Test positivity rate remains between 4 and 5%, slightly higher than EU’s 3% requirement yet not too far off

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• While Bahrain eased restrictions for inbound travel from many countries in early September, interest in outbound travel remains muted due to international travel still being heavily regulated
• This week’s news on stricter policies on social gatherings along with the start of the school year a couple of weeks back have dampened demand for domestic accommodation as well

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• Bahrain has one of the highest testing rates worldwide catching a lot of the asymptomatic cases 
• Despite the significant amount of testing, the test positivity rate has started to once again increase- a key indicator to watch out for in the coming days and weeks
• Last two weeks also saw the re-introduction of social restriction policies and the start of a large Phase 3 clinical trial. Both developments show Bahrain’s commitment to take decisive steps in preventing a major virus outbreak

Travel Demand from Oman

• Domestic hotels continue to perform strongly despite the health situation is not yet under control. The reopening of the land border with UAE might further drive interest in domestic hotels
• The ancient port city of Sohar continues to attract most of the incremental interest in staycations
• The news that flights will resume from 1st October have been re-confirmed a couple times since the initial announcement. A major increase in the appetite for international travel is yet to be seen

COVID Trends in Oman

• While there hasn’t been an official statement, it is likely that the recent increase in new COVID cases is a reversal of a policy from August to only test severe cases
• With no data on testing reported since mid-August, it is unclear how reflective of the overall situation the latest reports on new cases are

North Africa: Travel Pulse

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• At 124% of last year’s levels, Egypt is showing the strongest momentum. Just a month ago, interest in travel was around 50% and two weeks ago it was at 75%
• The dramatic spike in interest in international flights is directly related to KSA’s decision to reopen on 15th Sept.  Around three million Egyptians live and work in KSA- the largest diaspora of Egyptians outside Egypt
• Russia and Netherlands have each announced plans to restart scheduled flights to Cairo over the past couple of weeks

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The number of new cases remains extremely low by both MENA and global standards
• The lack of systematic reporting on testing continues to undermine the trustworthiness of the case numbers
• The Health and Population Ministry announced the start of Phase III clinical trials of two vaccines

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• The recent unfavourable COVID trends cost Tunisia losing its status as the only MENA country to be on EU’s safe list
• In view of incoming travel restrictions, interest in flights actually increased as Tunisians tried to make essential travel before borders start closing 
• Notably, interest in accommodation abroad did not increase- most of the trips abroad are work or family-related

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• With both new cases and test positivity now well outside the safe range and on a deteriorating trajectory, Tunisia lost it’s safe country status by the EU
• New laboratories for testing were set-up in Kebili, Sidi Bouzid and Jendouba providing more bandwidth to deal with virus

Travel Demand from Morocco

• Travel interest in Morocco remains thanks to KSA and Turkey which has compensated for the drop in travel to traditional top European destinations such as Spain, France and Italy
• Interest in domestic accommodation has decreased due to a combination of social restrictions, health concerns and the start of the school year

COVID Trends in Morocco

• The increase in new cases and test positivity with the country are now well outside EU’s safe range 
• Despite Moroccan government implementing a series of social restrictions throughout September, the unfavorable COVID trends have continued unabated

Travel Demand from Algeria

• While August saw a peak in interest in domestic accommodation in cities like Oran, Annaba and Constantine following the end of the lockdown, interest significantly weakened after the end of the summer
• International travel continues to be heavily restricted adding to an overall a very mute interest in travel

COVID Trends in Algeria

• The number of new cases of COVID continues to be excellent though the lack on visibility on testing remains a critical point in validating Algeria’s success in handling the health situation

Turkey & Levant: Travel Pulse

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• Already at a good level, interest in international flights received a major boost when KSA announced the easing of travel bans. The resumption of flights to Iraq in late September is also expected to drive demand
• While concerns surrounding the stability of the Turkish lira continue to limit interest in travel among the locals, the cheaper lira has helped drive inbound tourism from Russia and KSA to popular destinations like the Turkish Riviera
• Istanbul Airport received “Chinese Friendly Airport” certificate.  While major immediate impact is unlikely, the long-term impact on business activity and tourism can be sizeable 

COVID Trends in Turkey

• Despite that the decision to open its borders in early August was seen as a risky move, the health situation in Turkey has remained good and stable
• Border tensions with neighbouring Greece might add a political flavor to Turkey being added on EU’s safe travel list.  Turkey has been meeting the formal requirements since they were issued
• Government announced the start of Phase III clinical trials

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

• Lebanon continues to be unique in having its recovery in flights surpass the recovery in accommodation
• While accommodation is largely depressed due to the unique mix of economic and political factors on top of the health considerations, the large diaspora of Lebanese expats trying to ensure livelihood has kept flights at respectable levels

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• New cases of COVID continue to increase and are now firmly in the red territory. Given the tough economic situation, the lingering aftermath of the Beirut explosion and the political tensions in forming a new government, it remains to be seen how effective the handling of the health situation is going to be
• Lack of data on testing makes assessing the virus situation difficult to assess 

Travel Demand from Jordan

• The strong  performance of domestic hotels in Jordan continues. September, similar to August and July, will end up measurably higher than an average month in 2019
• The easing of travel restriction by KSA drove a significant uptick in travel interest for international flights 

COVID Trends in Jordan

• While Jordan continues to do well on density of new cases, the trend has turned negative in September. 
• In the past couple of weeks, Jordan announced two-week closure of schools, mosques, cafes and restaurants and has limited social gatherings to no more than twenty people. It is important the country avoids Lebanon’s recent trend