Wego Travel Pulse ‘Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent’ 27 August 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search activity in MENA has remained flat at approximately a third of 2019 levels
• The last two weeks saw the typical post-Eid decrease in search activity across a number of markets 
• A number of markets experienced an increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19
• With August drawing to a close, a new set of travel policies might be announced furthering the easings from late July and enabling for more travel within the region
• The WHO announced $76 million of financial aid to Lebanon. The potential for further currency depreciation in Turkey and its border tensions with Greece are two stories to keep an eye on 

GCC: Travel Pulse

GCC: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• Overall search interest decreased during the post-Eid period going once again below 30% of 2019 levels
• Domestic travel for both flights and hotels continues to be the driving force 
  • domestic hotels in particular saw the steepest decline from the Eid heights
  • interest in domestic flights continues at close to early August levels’ indicating resilience in demand
• While the opening of land borders increased travel to neighbouring UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, this isn’t reflected in flights stats leaving international air travel stagnant at less than 20%

COVID Trends in KSA

• Test positivity rate continues to improve and is at an all-time low of 2% indicating the situation is largely under control
• The number of daily new cases has plateaued due to another increase in testing rates yet the discovery of asymptomatic cases should help curb the further spread of the virus down the road 
• The recent increase in new cases makes the meeting of EU requirements for safe country list less certain

Travel Demand from UAE

• The weeks following Eid saw a step back in travel interest with overall search activity dipping once again below 30% 
• Domestic hotels remain the main growth driver at roughly 2019 levels, helped by the easing of local restrictions and the lack of outbound alternatives
• With more testing facilities being set-up and widely-publicised testing policies for travel, we remain optimistic about travel interest gradually returning

COVID Trends in UAE

• UAE continues to have by far the best test positivity rate in MENA on par with the safest countries worldwide 
• New cases have stopped decreasing which is largely due to an increase in the rate of testing
• Similar to KSA, the increase in new cases makes projecting the time when UAE would be able to meet EU safe list requirements more difficult. Yet, catching a larger proportion of the asymptomatic cases is a positive development that should help in the long-term

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• Kuwait continues to struggle with the pandemic, however, as travel interest in KSA and UAE has taken a step back, the country is now on par with both states by the virtue of not having decreased as much in the weeks following Eid
• Travel restrictions mean that interest in international travel remains depressed

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• The test positivity rate has finally started to noticeably improve- often times the earliest indicator for a sustained recovery under way
• A more rapid increase in the testing rate is likely required in order to shorten the recovery timeline

Travel Demand from Qatar

• With health officials publicly advicing to avoid international travel for the remainder of 2020, interest in staycations in mid-August spiked from an already high levels
• Domestic destinations such as Ar Rayyan, Az Za`ayin and Al Wukair experienced particularly high levels of interest thanks to their proximity to Doha

COVID Trends in Qatar

• The density of new cases is still substantially higher than what’s considered safe levels, yet test positivity continues to improve indicating progress is being made
• If the current pace of improvement continues, the country might reach EU’s safe levels sometime in late September`

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• With the gradual easing of local restrictions, staycations have remained popular with the locals
• Interest in flights remains relatively high as the government has allowed foreign workers to exit and enter the country as a way to keep the economy afloat

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• Bahrain continues to have one of the highest density of COVID cases largely due to the very high rate of testing.  
• Test positivity rate has now consistently been within an acceptable range suggesting that a large percentage of the COVID cases are being caught. Provided test positivity continues to improve, new cases should eventually begin to improve, too. 

Travel Demand from Oman

• The lifting of the second lockdown on 8 August, led to a surge in interest for domestic hotels.  The city of Sohar continues to experience levels of interest exceeding 2019 levels
• While the recent surge in domestic hotels is exciting, Oman continues to be heavily impacted by the pandemic and likely to remain closed for international travel in the foreseeable future

COVID Trends in Oman

• The sharp drop in new cases of COVID is due to an official policy to slow down testing of non-severe cases and may not be indicative of the actual spread of the virus
• While the two-week lockdown has likely limited the spread, the discontinuation of reports on testing leaves some uncertainty as to the representativeness of the stats for new cases

North Africa: Travel Pulse

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• Overall travel interest in Egypt continues at around 50% of 2019 levels with most hotel properties now operational 
• After some really strong interest in flights to Sohag and Assiut in early August, interest in domestic travel remained at respectable levels in the normally lull post-Eid weeks
• Interest in domestic hotels has remained very strong throughout August to all major destinations including the capital city as well as popular beach destinations

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The number of new cases continues to decrease with density of cases very low even by global standards
• The lack of systematic reporting on testing continues to undermine the trustworthiness of the case numbers

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• Widely seen as the MENA country that has best dealt with the pandemic, Tunisia’s recent spike in case numbers led to fears that the country might lose its safe country status with EU after the same happened to Algeria and Morocco
• Despite the spike, interest in travel has remained strong throughout August boosted by local staycations and international flights to Europe

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• Even though the new cases of COVID-19 have increased, density of new cases remains the best in MENA.  Tunisia is the only MENA country that is on EU’s list for safe countries
• With the situation seemingly starting to slip out of control, the country instituted mandatory mask wearing and began to require negative COVID-19 test for international flights 

Travel Demand from Morocco

• No longer listed on EU’s safe travel list, travel interest in Morocco has nonetheless remained strong in August
• Government’s decision to ban intercity travel and mandatory mask wearing at the end of July, caused travel interest to crater for a few days, yet interest quickly returned despite the number of daily new cases continuing to increase

COVID Trends in Morocco

• The sharp increase in new cases has continued unabated since our previous update and Morocco is now well outside EU criteria for safe countries
• Test positivity rate has also inched outside the safe range indicating that a higher rate of testing might be needed
• Despite recent negative trends, given Morocco’s track record for taking swift actions, we remain hopeful that the future is brighter than the simple extrapolation of the latest figures may suggest

Travel Demand from Algeria

• Similar to Morocco, Algeria was dropped from EU’s safe list in early August. With international travel not nearly as high as in Morocco or Tunisia prior to the exclusion, the impact of EU’s decision was largely mute 
• Government’s decision to lift local travel bans in mid-August led to a surge in domestic hotel accommodations. Daily interest for hotels in Annaba, Setif, Batna, Blida among others often exceeded 2019 levels

COVID Trends in Algeria

• The number of new cases has been decreasing since early August suggesting that the partial lockdown has been effective  in limiting the spread of the virus. 
• If the positive trend continues, readmission to EU’s safe list can reasonably be expected in September, however, the lack on visibility on testing remains a critical point in evaluating how well Algeria is truly dealing with the pandemic

Turkey & Levant: Travel Pulse

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• Turkey has been one of the success stories having fully recovered from the major outbreak in April to be close to meeting EU’s safe country criteria
• After allowing tourists from Russia in early August, the government has since reached an agreement to resume flights to 92 countries, providing a further boost to the local tourism sector
• The stability of the Turkish lira remains a concern and has limited the domestic recovery despite the COVID situation largely under control. The cheaper lira might make Turkey attractive for inbound tourism as the currency depreciation in 2018 has shown

COVID Trends in Turkey

• Turkey has been on the verge of meeting EU’s criteria for safe countries for some time and there have been frequent unconfirmed reports in the media about the country being added to the list. 
• The recent slight increase in case numbers is making adding Turkey to EU’s list of safe countries more doubtful.  The escalating border tensions with EU-member Greece might add a further caveat to the story

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

• Daily cases of COVID have continued to increase, yet with the deadly blast in Beirut, the ensuing step-down of the political cabinet and the fragile economic situation, the pandemic has taken a backstage in the country
• Lebanon is the only country in MENA and possibly the world where the recovery in flights is surpassing the recovery in accommodation. While accommodation is largely depressed due to the unique mix of economic and political factors on top of the health considerations, the large diaspora of Lebanese expats trying to ensure livelihood has kept interest in flights at respectable levels

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• The recent spike in virus cases is a worrying sign that things might be getting out of control given the country’s diminished ability to deal with the health situation for economic and political reasons
• Further complicating the overall situation have been the mass protests which may help further spread the virus
• One positive development has been the securing of $76 million aid from the World Health Organisation to help the country

Travel Demand from Jordan

• The strong  performance of domestic hotels in Jordan continues. August, like July also did, will likely end up measurably higher than an average month in 2019
• With Jordan restarting flights and reopening for inbound tourism, interest in flights briefly surged in early August yet it has promptly come back to old levels

COVID Trends in Jordan

• The density of new cases continues to be well within safe levels, yet starting to report data on testing would be required in Jordan being widely recognised as a safe country