Wego Travel Pulse ‘Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent’ 29 July 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search activity in MENA has been flat in July plateauing at approximately a third of the activity in 2019
• Despite the muted recovery, UAE in GCC, North Africa and Turkey are among the positive stories
• Recovery dynamics differ from market to market in shape, composition and direction
• While the recent resurgence of cases has stiffened travel in some markets, others are easing travel restrictions
• Similar to trends in other regions of the world, domestic travel is further along the recovery curve than international
• Containing the coronavirus is key to further travel recovery and requires a continuous effort

GCC: Travel Demand

GCC: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• Overall search interest remains depressed at 25%-30% of 2019 levels
• Domestic travel for both flights and hotels has continued to recover
  • Domestic hotels (not shown in the table above) recently had a daily record surpassing 80% 
  • Domestic flights are also continuously improving having already surpassed 50%
• Interest in international travel is stagnant at <20% due to a mix of travel restrictions and health fears

COVID Trends in KSA

• Test positivity rate below 5% is a strong indication that the pandemic is increasingly under control
• The number of daily new cases has been decreasing throughout July. At this rate of rapid improvement, density of new cases might reach EU safe levels by mid-August
• Tripling of the number of tests performed has been key to getting the situation under control

Travel Demand from UAE

• Travel recovery in UAE has stabilised in July with the rate of easing of restrictions slowing down globally
• Dubai’s decision to reopen on 7th July had a strong impact on inbound tourism and domestic activity yet limited impact on outbound travel
• Interest in domestic hotels continues to be growing strongly and is currently exceeding 2019 levels, helped by both easing of restriction domestically, the lack of safe outbound alternatives and the EU closing its borders
• Emirates’ freshly-installed requirement for on-arrival testing for passengers from 29 countries is making inbound travel more cumbersome yet boost traveler’s confidence and would help limit the spread of the virus

COVID Trends in UAE

• UAE continues to have by far the best test positivity rate in MENA on par with the safest countries worldwide 
• While the density of new cases remains relatively high, the trend has been consistently positive 
• Should the current rate of rapid improvement continue, UAE may meet EU safe country requirements sometime in the first half of August 

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• Kuwait has been one of the hardest hit countries in GCC and travel interest is yet to show clear signs of recovery 
• Despite news on Jazeera Airways resuming flights and the third phase of curfew reduction, the number of COVID cases continues to be high putting into doubts how rapid the recovery is going to be

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• While both new cases and test positivity are trending in positive direction, the rate of improvement has been gradual and values continue to be significantly higher than what’s generally considered a safe level
• A more rapid increase in the testing rate is likely required in order to speed-up recovery

Travel Demand from Qatar

• Qatar has continued to gradually recover enjoying some of the highest levels of user activity across the GCC
• Qatar Airways has been unique in keeping flight schedules at levels close to those of last year helping keep interest in flights relatively high
• The opening of borders for 40 countries from 1st August is likely to help local tourism
• Similar to other markets, the primary growth driver in second half of July has been domestic hotels which have on occasions exceeded 2019 levels

COVID Trends in Qatar

• The COVID situation has continued to consistently improve yet it is some distance away from the safe levels
• While the higher rate of testing has led to more cases reported in the official statistics, longer-term the higher rate of testing helps bring the situation under control faster
• At the current rate of improvements, Qatar might meet EU’s criteria for safe country in second half of August

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• After experiencing one of the strongest recoveries in early July, second half of the month saw travel interest in Bahrain reverse back as the COVID situation took a turn for the worse
• Similar to other markets, domestic hotels (not shown in the table above) have pushed-up the overall averages
• In contrast to other markets, flights in Bahrain are higher than hotels overall thanks to people traveling to visit friends and relatives

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• Bahrain has one of the highest density of COVID cases with the trend only recently starting to make gains
• Test positivity rate has been consistently low suggesting that a large percentage of the covid cases are recorded. The latest trend indicates a slight deterioration- something to watch out for

Travel Demand from Oman

• Oman continues to be the worst-hit GCC country by the coronavirus depressing any interest in travel
• With the freshly implemented full lockdown scheduled to remain in place until 8th August and given the severity of the current situation, no uptick in travel interest is to be expected in the foreseeable future

COVID Trends in Oman

• While Oman took initiative releasing its own contact tracing app, it hasn’t really helped fight off a situation that has become increasingly dire 
• Oman has the world’s highest test positivity rate outside Latin America and the rate of testing needs to be significantly ramped up until some positive signs start to appear.

North Africa: Travel Demand

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• Egypt has been seeing a sustained growth in travel interest. Daily volumes are near 60% of 2019 levels
• While first half of July was boosted by international flights’ growth, it was domestic tourism that provided continued push in the second half of the month
• The allure for having a unique chance to experience Egypt’s iconic attractions free of the usual influx of international tourists continues to support local tourism to a respectable level

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The decrease in new cases of COVID-19 is encouraging, however, the lack of testing data makes evaluating the true extent of the pandemic difficult

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• After being selected by the EU as one of the only handful of “safe countries”, Tunisia has continued to perform strongly with domestic travel regularly exceeding 2019 levels
• EU’s nod of confidence led to a surge in interest in flights making Tunisia one of the few MENA countries where flights outpace hotels

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• New cases of COVID continue to be very low though in recent days there has been a significant increase
• The lack of data on testing since early July, has made it difficult to ensure the country continues to do well and might become problematic should the number of new cases continue to rise
• Tunisia’s newly appointed PM may opt for a swift action in fighting the virus showing decisiveness early in the mandate

Travel Demand from Morocco

• Similar to Tunisia, the inclusion of Morocco among the safe countries has boosted confidence and led to a continued increase in travel interest
• Domestic flights in particular have been significantly exceeding 2019 levels throughout July! 
• With the recent spike in cases and government’s swift decision to ban intercity travel, travel interest is expected to crater in the upcoming days yet Morocco’s track record for acting early and good current standing gives causes for optimism

COVID Trends in Morocco

• While the test positivity rate continues to be very low indicating a situation in control, the recent sharp increase in new cases is something to pay attention to 
• The swift intercity travel ban shows the government’s will to proactively face coronavirus outbreaks as it also did in March

Travel Interest in Algeria

• While Algeria was accepted as a “safe country” similar to neighbouring Morocco and Tunisia, the country was in a worse position than both and has been having increasing level of cases subduing interest in travel 
• Government’s recent decision to partially ban road traffic in 29 provinces has further depressed travel demand

COVID Trends in Algeria

• Density of new cases have recently exceeded EU’s acceptable level and the country is likely to be excluded from the safe list in the next update
• With the increase in new cases, starting to report test data will be a critical step towards evaluating how well Algeria is dealing with the resurgence of the pandemic

Turkey: Travel Demand

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• Turkey has been one of the success stories having fully recovered from the major outbreak in April to be close to meeting EU’s safe country criteria
• While inbound tourism is yet to recover, the country will start accepting tourists from Russia starting 1st of August 
• Similar to Egypt, a lot of Turkish people have been eager to experience their country free of tourists while tapping on some great deals

COVID Trends in Turkey

• Turkey’s proactive and extensive testing program inside the country as well as the launch of testing centers in airports has boosted confidence in both domestic and inbound tourism  
• Turkey is on the verge of meeting EU’s criteria for safe countries and likely to be included in the next version of the list

Levant: Travel Demand

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• Recent spike in virus cases is a worrying sign that things might be getting out of control 
• Reporting on testing data would be critical in evaluating the size of the crisis 

Travel Demand from Jordan

• In contrast to neighbouring Lebanon, hotels continue to be the main driver for Jordan having surpassed 60% of 2019 level for the month to date
• At less than 30%, flights continue to be largely subdued as limited number of international flights are in operation 
• With the country opening to ten low-risk markets in August and domestic flights finally in operation, flights might finally show signs of recovery 

COVID Trends in Jordan

• The density of new cases continue to be very good in Jordan, yet data on testing has been scarce