Wego Travel Pulse “Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent” 5 November 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search interest in MENA has further decreased and is currently at 35.2% of 2019 levels
• The rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 cases in a number of markets worldwide as well as several MENA countries has depressed interest in travel from September’s highs
• North African countries and the countries in Levant area are experiencing a particular difficult second wave of the pandemic leading to new, stricter lockdowns measures to be imposed in a number of places
• GCC countries have so far been spared yet travel remains muted due to border restrictions and health fears
• While the second wave appears to be hitting Europe and North America at levels exceeding the previous peaks, the lower CFRs and impending wide-adoption of rapid testing gives hope for travel to gradually resume even before the pandemic is over

GCC: Travel Pulse

GCC: TOP Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• With cases of COVID-19 resurging worldwide, international travel is back to pre-September 15 levels
• Most interest for international travel is mainly for trips after New Years Eve. Top destinations are Dubai, Cairo, and Istanbul
• Interest in domestic travel for both flights and hotels remains solid above half of 2019 levels
• With further flight easings starting in November, there are now flights to 33 international destinations

COVID Trends in KSA

• KSA continues to be doing great in managing the pandemic with all metrics trending is the right direction
• The pandemic has continued to deteriorate further since our last update. While KSA has been meeting EU’s safe criteria for over two months now, no European country is meeting EU’s own criteria 

Travel Demand from UAE

• International travel remains muted as restrictions are still in place and COVID cases continues to rise 
• Interest in flights to Kuwait continues to fall, yet Kuwait City remains Dubai’s top flight destination while Cairo is the top destination from UAE overall
• Domestic hotel stays continue to be the main growth driver, accounting for more bookings than all international destinations combined.  With the exception of April, interest in staycations has remained at least half of 2019 levels throughout the pandemic

COVID Trends in UAE

• Test positivity rate continues to be among world’s best thanks to the extensive testing
• The number of new COVID-19 cases has finally stopped rising.  Interesting to observe if the trend lasts

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• Interest for international travel remains mute as travel continues to be heavily restricted 
• The weak Turkish currency, continue to boost Turkey and its largest city, Istanbul, to be the top leisure destination for trips involving hotel stays
• After dropping in early October, interest in Kuwait’s top flight destination Egypt recovered somewhat in late October

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• The recent increase in new cases has been largely due to increased testing and case numbers have now stabilised
• Test positivity continues improving and is poised to reach single digits for the first time since the start of the pandemic

Travel Demand from Qatar

• Qatar extended quarantine rules for the remainder of 2020 dampening interest in international travel
• With reports about KSA and Qatar making diplomatic progress, any resumption of flights between Qatar and the other GCC countries can serve as a catalyst for international travel 
• Interest in domestic staycations remains strong at levels similar to 2019 and is the main engine for travel
• Ar Rayyan remains among the most attractive domestic destination outside the capital city

COVID Trends in Qatar

• The COVID situation remains stable- new cases have increased recently largely as a result of the higher testing rate
• Test positivity rate is now under 3%- the third lowest in MENA after KSA and UAE

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• Interest in international travel remained largely unchanged throughout October
• Domestic accommodation continues to be the main growth engine.  In particular, 19th October saw a major surge in search interest for the weekend after it.  
• Manama, Madinat Hamad, and Madinat Isa continue to attract the majority of staycation interest 

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• Bahrain has one of the highest testing rates worldwide catching a lot of the asymptomatic cases 
• While new cases continue to improve rapidly, Bahrain still has one of the highest case densities in MENA 
• The test positivity rate has continuously improved and is already under 3%- an indication the health situation is under control 

Travel Demand from Oman

• Interest in domestic accommodation rebounded strongly after news on the curfew getting lifted on 24th October
• The capital city of Muscat remains the top accommodation destination though other cities such as Sohar, Salalah, and Seeb are also attracting staycation traffic

COVID Trends in Oman

• The number of new COVID cases began to quickly improve in mid-October
• There is still no new data on testing reported leaving uncertainty about the health situation in the country

North Africa: Travel Pulse

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• Egypt has had the strongest travel sentiment in MENA since the July, yet, in the last two weeks travel momentum came back significantly with rumours about stricter restrictions being implemented
• The surge in domestic accommodation reported in the previous MENA Pulse proved short-lived with interest in domestic hotels now down to levels not seen since May

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The density of new cases in official statistics remains extremely low by both MENA and global standards
• Circumstantial evidence on politicians getting sick and public talk of a possible lockdown suggests the actual case counts might be higher
• The lack of systematic reporting on testing also undermines the trustworthiness of the case numbers

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• The recent COVID trends depressed interest in domestic travel. October saw the lowest levels since April
• A 15-day night curfew began on 23rd October in a number of regions
• Interest in flights has stayed above 50% of 2019 levels- most of the trips abroad are work or family-related
• Turkey overtook KSA as Tunisia’s top international destination. Turkey’s weakening currency and stable health situation are helping its inbound tourism  

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• The health situation continues to deteriorate with new daily cases continuing to increase at a very rapid pace
• Tunisia no longer reports data on testing 

Travel Demand from Morocco

• While the health situation continues to deteriorate, interest in flights remains strong especially for domestic travel
• Interest in accommodation remains low suggesting most of the travel is essential work and family-related 

COVID Trends in Morocco

• Both new cases and test positivity continued increasing in October
  • Test positivity rate has now reached 15%
  • Density of cases is now close to 100 per million though the increase has slowed down in recent days

Travel Demand from Algeria

• Travel remains largely mute in Algeria 
• International travel continues to be heavily restricted and remains less than 20% of 2019 levels- lower than even the April/May period

COVID Trends in Algeria

• https://res.cloudinary.com/wegowordpress/image/upload/v1604563281/Screen_Shot_2020-11-05_at_14.53.34_adcksl.pngThe number of new cases continues to be excellent, however, the lack on visibility on testing remains a critical point in validating Algeria’s success in handling the health situation
• Circumstantial evidence of top politicians getting sick and trends in neighbouring countries suggest that the real case numbers might be significantly higher than in official reports

Turkey & Levant: Travel Pulse

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• Despite recent tensions, international flights remain strong particularly to GCC markets 
• The Turkish lira continues to depreciate limiting interest in leisure domestic travel- domestic accommodation has remained depressed throughout the pandemic

COVID Trends in Turkey

• The official COVID statistics remain strong for Turkey. Turkey remains the only country on the European continent that stills meet EU’s safe country criteria
• Turkey’s exceptionally good stats have come under public scrutiny as circumstantial evidence indicates the real case numbers might be worse.  
• Official plans for mass vaccination have been announced with the program starting from early 2021

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

• Travel interest has remained stable and low throughout October edging just above 30%
• A country-wide night curfew is now in place with all types of social gatherings banned limiting economic and social activity

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• The density of new cases of COVID-19 continues to rapidly increase and is the second highest in MENA and hospitals struggling for beds and medical personnel 

Travel Demand from Jordan

• The rapid rise in new COVID cases along with new lockdown measures depressed travel interest throughout October 
• International flights continue to significantly outpace international accommodation most travel is for essential work and family-related
• Domestic accommodation has slumped dramatically from previous months with more restrictions imposed in October

COVID Trends in Jordan

• The health situation continues to rapidly deteriorate with record number of daily new cases reported.  Jordan now has the highest density of COVID cases among all MENA countries
• Further lockdown restrictions were implemented on 2nd November