Wego Travel Pulse “Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent” 18 November 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search interest in MENA has further decreased and is currently at 32.8% of 2019 levels
• The rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 cases in a number of markets worldwide as well as several MENA countries continues to put a downward pressure on travel resurgence
• North African countries and the countries in Levant area are experiencing a particularly strong second wave of the pandemic leading to new, stricter lockdowns measures to be imposed in a number of places
• GCC countries have so far been spared yet travel interest remains muted due to border restrictions and health fears
• Positive news around Moderna and Pfizer vaccine development are encouraging though mass vaccination will take at least until end of Q1 2021.  Test implementation of rapid antigen testing in Singapore and other markets gives further hope of a solution to help travel demand in the near future

GCC: Travel Pulse

GCC:  TOP Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• With cases of COVID-19 resurging worldwide, interest in international travel remains limited
• Most interest for international travel continues to be for trips right after New Years’ Eve when KSA will reopen its borders.  Dubai, Cairo, and Istanbul continue to be the top post-NYE destinations
• After a seven month hiatus, Umrah resumed with some 10,000 pilgrims arriving on 1st November
• Interest in domestic travel for both flights and hotels remains solid around half of 2019 levels

COVID Trends in KSA

• KSA continues to be doing great in managing the pandemic with all metrics trending in the right direction
• The pandemic has continued to deteriorate worldwide especially in Europe and USA. While KSA has been meeting EU’s safe criteria for three months now, no European country is meeting EU’s own standards

Travel Demand from UAE

• International travel remains muted at less than a third of 2019 levels as restrictions are still in place 
• Interest in flights to Kuwait have steadily decreased throughout October and early November making way for Cairo to become the top international destination.  India remains the top destination. 
• Domestic hotel stays continue to be the main growth driver, accounting for more bookings than all international destinations combined
• The top 7 hotel destinations are all UAE cities: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras al Khaimah, Sharjah, Fujairah, Al Ain, and Ajman

COVID Trends in UAE

• Test positivity rate continues to be among world’s best thanks to UAE having world’s highest density of testing
• The number of new COVID-19 cases has finally started to improve over a sustained period

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• Interest for international travel remains mute as travel continues to be heavily restricted 
• The rapid appreciation of the Turkish lira last week, led to a 33% WoW decrease in travel interest.  Nevertheless, Istanbul remained the top leisure destination from Kuwait for trips involving hotel stays
• Cairo remains the top flight-only destination thanks to the large diaspora of Egyptians working in Kuwait

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• The number of new cases has largely stabilised as with the number of tests performed is now also stable
• Test positivity has stopped improving, however, indicating that there is more work to be done to contain the virus

Travel Demand from Qatar

• With quarantine rules confirmed to stay for the remainder of 2020, interest in international travel remains mute
• We are yet to see meaningful impact of the recent announcement for a no-quarantine travel to/from the Maldives and the eased quarantine rules for travel from 23 countries worldwide
• Interest in domestic staycations remains strong at levels similar to 2019 and is the main driver for travel

COVID Trends in Qatar

• The COVID situation remains stable- new cases continue to be stable
• After consistent and significant progress over several months, test positivity rate is now increasing once again

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• Interest in international travel remained largely unchanged in early November
• Pharmacies are now selling rapid antigen tests for home testing purposes
• Somewhat hidden behind the overall aggregates, last week saw an increase in interest for hotel stays in UAE, Turkey, and Egypt

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• Bahrain has one of the highest testing rates worldwide catching a lot of the asymptomatic cases 
• New cases continue to rapidly improve though still in triple figures and the highest among MENA countries
• Test positivity has continuously improved and is now consistently under 3%- a strong indication that the health situation is under control 

Travel Demand from Oman

• After the initial post-curfew rebound on 24th October, interest in staycations has remained strong nonetheless.  Interest in domestic stays is higher than all international destinations combined
• The capital city of Muscat remains by far the top accommodation destination though other cities such as Sohar, Salalah, and Mussanah are also attracting staycation traffic

COVID Trends in Oman

• The number of new cases continues improving
• Lack of data on testing leaves uncertainty about the overall health situation in Oman

North Africa: Travel Pulse

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• Interest in travel in first half of November remains at the low levels of late October
• Domestic accommodation which has remained strong throughout the summer is now lagging international travel
• Domestic and Chinese vaccine trials have now completed, with mass production set to begin

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The density of new cases in official statistics remains extremely low by both MENA and global standards
• Circumstantial evidence on celebrities getting sick and strict measures on mask wearing and a possible lockdown suggests the actual case counts might be higher
• The lack of systematic reporting on testing also undermines the trustworthiness of the case numbers

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• The recent surge in COVID cases continues to depress domestic travel to the lowest level since April
• A 15-day night curfew began on 23rd October in a number of regions
• Interest in flights has stayed above 50% of 2019 levels- most of the trips abroad are work or family-related
• Turkey continues to be ahead of KSA for Tunisia’s top international destination with majority of traffic leisure-focuses as opposed to work or family-related

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• The health situation continues to be dire though new cases have stopped increasing 
• Tunisia no longer reports data on testing 

Travel Demand from Morocco

• While the health situation continues to deteriorate, interest in flights remains strong especially for domestic travel
• Interest in accommodation remains low suggesting most of the travel is essential work and family-related 

COVID Trends in Morocco

• Both new cases and test positivity continued increasing in October
  • Test positivity rate now exceeds 20%
  • Density of cases is now close to 150 per million with the increase continuing

Travel Demand from Algeria

• Travel remains largely mute in Algeria 
• International travel continues to be heavily depressed and remains less than 20% of 2019 levels- lower than even the April/May period

COVID Trends in Algeria

• The number of new cases continues to be good, however, the lack on visibility on testing remains a critical point in validating Algeria’s success in handling the health situation
• Circumstantial evidence of top politicians getting sick and trends in neighbouring countries suggest that the real case numbers might be significantly higher

Turkey & Levant: Travel Pulse

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• Despite recent tensions, international flights remain strong particularly to GCC markets 
• The sacking of the central bank chief provided a boost to the Turkish lira which surged in value

COVID Trends in Turkey

• The official COVID statistics remain strong for Turkey but have come under public scrutiny as circumstantial evidence mounts that the real case numbers are significantly higher than officially reported  
• Official plans for mass vaccination using China’s Sinovac have been announced with the program starting from early 2021

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

• With a health crisis on top of economic issues, travel interest remains depressed
• A country-wide night curfew is now in place with all types of social gatherings banned limiting economic and social activity

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• While case numbers have surged to second highest in MENA, at least they are finally showing signs of tapering 
• While there are no reports on testing, signs are clear that Lebanon continues to struggle fighting the pandemic

Travel Demand from Jordan

• The rapid rise in new COVID cases along with new lockdown measures depressed travel interest throughout October 
• International flights continue to significantly outpace international accommodation, most travel is for essential work and family-related
• Domestic accommodation has slumped dramatically from previous months with lockdown restrictions increasingly in place

COVID Trends in Jordan

• The health situation continues to rapidly deteriorate with record number of daily new cases reported.  Jordan now has the highest density of COVID cases among all MENA countries and among the highest in the world
• Further lockdown restrictions were implemented on 2nd November