Wego Travel Pulse “Covid-19 & MENA Traveller Intent” 16 December 2020

MENA Key Highlights

• Travel search interest in MENA remains depressed at 37.8% of 2019 levels
• MENA countries have been among the first to approve the use of COVID-19 vaccines, securing enough quantities from Western, Chinese and Russian manufacturers to cover a significant portion of the population 
• With the notable exception of Turkey, the health situation in MENA remains largely stable and improving. Some countries like Kuwait, Jordan and Morocco have been experiencing rapid improvements during December
• While GCC countries have been spared from the Fall wave of the coronavirus, interest in travel remains muted due to border restrictions and ongoing health fears
• North African countries and the Levant countries now seem to have passed the worst point of the pandemic though the health situation remains critical in some

GCC: Travel Pulse

GCC:  TOP Destinations

Travel Demand from KSA

• With cases of COVID-19 resurging worldwide, interest in international travel remains less than a third of 2019 levels
• The majority of the search activity is for trips immediately after New Years’ Eve with KSA planning to reopen its borders.  Dubai, Cairo, and Istanbul have consistently been the top three leisure destinations for Saudi travellers
• Interest in domestic travel remains consistent around half of 2019 levels

COVID Trends in KSA

• KSA continues to be doing great in managing the pandemic with all metrics trending in the right direction
• While the current wave of the pandemic continues worldwide, KSA has kept the health situation well within control
• KSA has reportedly secured vaccines from a range of producers- CureVac, Pfizer-BioNTech, Sputnik V though the exact quantity remains unclear 

Travel Demand from UAE

• As borders remain largely closed, interest in international travel continues to be mute 
• Domestic hotel stays continue to be the main growth driver, accounting for more bookings than all international destinations combined
• The top 7 hotel destinations are all the UAE emirates: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras al Khaimah, Sharjah, Fujairah, Al Ain, and Ajman
• The rumours about potential restart of flights to Turkey caused a spike in interest in both flights & accommodation.  Istanbul jumped to the top international leisure destination with roughly twice the traffic of second place Cairo

COVID Trends in UAE

• Test positivity rate continues to be among world’s best thanks to UAE having world’s highest density of testing
• The number of new COVID-19 cases continuous to be stubbornly high though the strong positivity rates suggest the health situation is largely under control 
• UAE has reportedly secured vaccines from CureVac and Sinopharm that cover most of its population and vaccination has already begun

Travel Demand from Kuwait

• Interest for travel remains mute as travel continues to be heavily restricted 
• Cairo continues to be the top flight-only destination thanks to the large diaspora of Egyptians working in Kuwait while Dubai and Istanbul are tied for the top spot among international leisure destinations

COVID Trends in Kuwait

• November and early December saw a dramatic improvement in the number of new COVID-19 cases 
• Test positivity has also been steadily improving and is now firmly in single digits for the first time since the start of the pandemic
• Kuwait has secured vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Curevac

Travel Demand from Qatar

• With quarantine rules confirmed to stay for the remainder of 2020, interest in international travel remains mute. This might change very quickly, however, upon any news on reopening of borders
• Interest in domestic staycations remains strong at levels similar to 2019 and is the main driver for travel. Interest in hotel stays in Qatar exceeds the interest in hotel stays across all international destinations combined 
• With COVID-19 making travel highly uncertain, virtually all interest is for travel in the next seven days

COVID Trends in Qatar

• The COVID situation is gradually improving- the number of new cases is gradually decreasing as is test positivity rate
• Qatar continues to have one of the highest testing rates worldwide
• Qatar has secured vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna

Travel Demand from Bahrain

• Interest in travel continues to be low though both international flights and hotels are currently at the highest level since the start of the pandemic
• Flights, all international, are outpacing accommodation as many workers are still doing travel.  Cairo is by far the top flight destination with search activity about 3X the second most searched for destination, Dubai

COVID Trends in Bahrain

• The test positivity rate continues to be very good suggesting the health situation is largely under control 
• New cases continue to be high as a result of the high testing rate and catching a lot of the asymptomatic cases
• Bahrain has secured vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and CureVac

Travel Demand from Oman

• Interest in staycations continues to be strong attracting double the traffic of all international destinations combined
• The capital city of Muscat remains the top accommodation destination though cities like Sohar, Salalah, and Mussanah are also attracting sizeable traffic
• Dubai and Istanbul remain closely tied for the top international leisure destination 
• Oman has secured vaccines from CureVac, Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca

COVID Trends in Oman

• The number of new cases has fallen down dramatically over the past two months. With the resumption of international flights to Sohar and Salalah, further improving will be critical to leverage on the gradual reopening of the country
• Lack of data on testing leaves uncertainty about the overall health situation in Oman

North Africa: Travel Pulse

North Africa: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Egypt

• Interest in travel continues to be significantly down from 2019 as well as from the Summer highs
• Vaccination, which was originally expected to only start in May 2021, is now expected to start before the end of 2020 with the first shipment of China’s Sinopharm vaccine having already arrived

COVID Trends in Egypt

• The density of new cases in official statistics remains extremely good by both MENA and global standards
• The lack of systematic reporting on testing and circumstantial evidence about celebrities getting sick undermines the representativeness of the case numbers
• Egypt has secured vaccines to cover 62% of its population: 
  • Oxford-AstraZeneca 30%
  • Pfizer-BioNTech 20%
  • Sputnik V 12%

Travel Demand from Tunisia

• Interest in flights has remained strong even during the height of the fall wave of coronavirus
• While domestic accommodation is yet to really start recovering, Turkey continues to be very popular despite the recent surge in case numbers 

COVID Trends in Tunisia

• After the dramatic increase in case numbers in October and November, December has brought a gradual improvement though the health situation remains uncertain
• Tunisia has stopped reporting on testing data
• Tunisia will be getting vaccines through the COVAX scheme. At present, 6 million doses enough for 3 millions are expected through COVAX 

Travel Demand from Morocco

• Interest in flights remained strong despite the health situation dramatically worsening in October and November. As the Fall wave of the pandemic is increasingly getting under control in December, interest in flights got a further boost
• Interest in accommodation remains low suggesting most of the travel is essential work and family-related 

COVID Trends in Morocco

• Both new cases and test positivity are now rapidly improving from the mid-November highs
• Mass vaccination is about to start with a locally-produced Chinese vaccine, Sinopharm

Travel Demand from Algeria

• While travel remains largely mute, a softening in movement restrictions led to a surge in interest for domestic flights. The city of Algiers saw a particularly sharp increase as many Algerians were trying to get to Algeria’s capital
• International travel continues to be largely depressed

COVID Trends in Algeria

• The number of new cases continues to be excellent, however, the lack on visibility on testing remains a critical point in validating Algeria’s success in handling the health situation
• Circumstantial evidence of top politicians getting sick and trends in neighbouring countries suggest that the real case numbers might be significantly higher

Turkey & Levant: Travel Pulse

Turkey: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Turkey

• Despite political tensions, a nationwide partial lockdown and spiking COVID-19 case numbers, interest in international flights has remained strong
• Some regional destinations such as KSA, Egypt and Lebanon saw a particularly strong surge in the days prior to Turkey locking down
• While citizens’ movement have been restricted, tourists have been allowed to be outside creating a unique situation 

COVID Trends in Turkey

• The official COVID statistics reported an incredible surge on 10th December confirming the pandemic had been underreported for some time as we also suggested in previous editions of our MENA Travel Pulse
• Turkey secured 50 million doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine and 10 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, enough to cover 35% of the population
• Formal approval of the vaccines has been delayed and vaccination is not expected to start before January

Levant: Top Destinations

Travel Demand from Lebanon

• The two-week curfew in November, did not lead to a major increase in travel interest as Lebanon is battling a health crisis on top of major economic issues

COVID Trends in Lebanon

• While density of COVID-19 cases continues to be the second highest in MENA (after Jordan), the numbers have been slowly improving over the past month
• Through Pfizer and the COVAX scheme, Lebanon has secured vaccines for 35% of its population 

Travel Demand from Jordan

• The rapid rise in new COVID cases and a lockdown policy have put a hard break on the travel recovery in Jordan especially domestic staycations 
• At 50% of 2019 levels, international flights continue to outpace international accommodation, suggesting most travel abroad is for essential work and family-related

COVID Trends in Jordan

• Though still having the highest density of COVID-19 cases in MENA, the health situation in Jordan has been rapidly improving throughout December 
• Jordan started reporting testing data and the test positivity confirms the improving dynamics in the country
• The country has secured enough Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines to cover 36% of the population