Travel Trends and Customer Analysis in Middle East: Travel Interest for Customers in KSA, UAE, Oman 15 July 2020- Wego Travel Blog

MENA Key Highlights

MENA search activity has been flat in July plateauing at approximately a third of the activity in 2019
Despite muted recovery so far, Bahrain in GCC, North Africa and Turkey provide positive stories
Recovery curves look very different market to market both in shape and in composition
The recent resurgence of cases has slowed down the reopening of travel yet as borders open, should provide a boost in searches
Continuous success in containing the coronavirus is key to further travel recovery

Total daily searches continue to float between 25%-30% of 2019 levels
Interest in hotels and domestic flights is at low 40s and continues to exceed international flights
Interest in international flights has remained stagnant in the low 20s due to travel restrictions
While lacking luster, there are some reasons for optimism:
- The rate of COVID-19 testing has roughly tripled over the past thirty 30 days
- Despite increased testing, new cases are less than in mid-June
- Test positivity rate has dropped from as high as 20% to nearly 5% indicating situation is getting under control

Recovery has been consistent thanks to the gradual relaxation of lockdown measures and travel restrictions
At around 40% 2019 levels, UAE is seeing the strongest recovery within the GCC together with Bahrain
Dubai’s decision to reopen on 7th July impacted inbound tourism and had measured impact on domestic activity
Consistently around 1%, UAE has by far the best test positivity rate in the region and on par with countries like Netherlands, Belgium and Italy

In expectation of the lifting of lockdown measures, early July saw increased activity particularly for domestic hotels
While interest in travel is still under 30% of 2019 levels, the easing of lockdown measures and the planned resumption of commercial flights in August will play a vital role in the recovery of the travel sector
COVID test positivity rate has remained stubbornly high indicating recovery might be protracted

Qatar has continued to gradually recover enjoying some of the highest levels of user activity across the GCC
Unlike most other carriers, Qatar Airways has kept flight schedules at levels close to those of last year which has helped interest in flights remain relatively strong
While still not completely under control, the COVID situation has been consistently improving since early June:
- New cases have dropped from almost 2,000/day to nearly 500/day
- Test positivity is down to 12% from a peak of almost 40%

Early July saw Bahrain enjoying the strongest recovery among the GCC countries
With the COVID situation increasingly under control, flights have surged to a daily peak of 80% of 2019 average
Domestic hotels ( not shown in the table above) have also surged peaking at 85% yet searches for international hotels remain stagnant bringing the overall hotel performance down

Struggling to contain the pandemic Oman has taken a step back in July with both flights and hotels decreasing from already low levels
Oman is yet to make the improvements in dealing with the pandemic. Test positivity rate has consistently been in the mid-30% range while no other GCC country is above 20%.
Based on how long other severely-hit countries have taken to control the pandemic, we don’t expect to see an improvement in travel interest before August

Egypt has been seeing a sustained growth in travel interest and daily volumes now frequently exceed 50% of 2019 levels
With Egyptair resuming operations in July, the recent growth has been led by international flights which have started to catch up with domestic flights
The allure for having a unique chance to experience Egypt’s iconic attractions free of the usual influx of international tourists continues to support local tourism to a respectable level

The EU cemented Tunisia’s reputation for having successfully dealt with the coronavirus by listing it among the handful of safe countries whose citizens can enter the bloc without restrictions
The boost of confidence has led to a continued increase in travel interest across both flights and hotels and across many destinations

Similar to Tunisia, the inclusion of Morocco among the safe countries has boosted confidence and lead to a continued increase in travel interest with domestic flights in particular now consistently exceeding 2019 levels!
After we reported a surge in interest in distant major cities like Agadir, Fes and Tangier, July saw Morocco’s two major cities- Casablanca and Marrakesh experiencing a strong surge in demand as well
While worrying, the recent increase in new COVID-19 cases is largely a result of increased testing. At about 2%, test positivity rate continues to be well within Europe’s acceptable range

While Algeria has been worse hit by the pandemic than both neighbouring Morocco and Tunisia, the country nevertheless made the EU list of safe countries
In contrast to both Morocco and Tunisia, Algeria doesn’t report testing data and the positive EU decision has failed to translate into a surge of travel interest and activity has largely remained subdued

After the major outbreak of cases in April, Turkey has successfully managed to contain the spread of the virus in May and gradually re-opened in June
Turkey’s proactive and extensive testing program inside the country as well as the launch testing centers in airports has boosted confidence in both domestic and inbound tourism
Similar to Egypt, a lot of Turkish people have been eager to experience their country free of tourists while tapping on some great deals

Flight interest surged to over 80% of 2019 levels boosted by the resumption of flights, the large Lebanese diaspora and the economic fears about the upcoming months
Difficult economic conditions are likely taming interest in hotels as they remain subdued in contrast to flights
Trends in Lebanon are the exact opposite of these in neighbouring Jordan

The continued growth in hotel interest continued in July surpassing 60% of 2019 level
At less than 30%, flights continue to be largely mute as limited number of international flights are in operation. Yet, all Jordan airports are expected to reopen before the end of July, so a surge of flight activity is possible
Royal Jordanian resumed domestic flights in late June and interest in domestic flights has continuously been above 2019 levels